Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model

ZHOU Piaopiao; ZHU Guanghu

doi:10.21656/1000-0887.390175

Volume 40 Issue 3

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ZHOU Piaopiao, ZHU Guanghu. Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175

Citation:

ZHOU Piaopiao, ZHU Guanghu. Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175

Citation:

ZHOU Piaopiao, ZHU Guanghu. Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2019, 40(3): 311-320. doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175

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Dynamic Analysis of the Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Transmission Model

doi: 10.21656/1000-0887.390175

ZHOU Piaopiao¹,
ZHU Guanghu^1,2

¹School of Mathematics and Computing Science, Guilin University of Electronic Technology, Guilin, Guangxi 541004, P.R.China;²Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, P.R.China

Funds: The National Natural Science Foundation of China（11661026）

Received Date: 2018-06-25
Rev Recd Date: 2018-09-19
Publish Date: 2019-03-01

Abstract

Abstract

Avian influenza A(H7N9) is always a big threat to human health and safety. Aimed at the transmission patterns of A(H7N9), a new SI-V-SEIR epidemic model was put forward, which incorporated the viral interactions among humans, poultry and environment. Through dynamic analysis, the expression of basic reproduction number R₀ was given, and the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points was proved. The proposed model was further applied to study the 2016—2017 A(H7N9) outbreaks in Guangdong province. It is found thatR₀=18.8 in the early outbreak, which indicates 94.7% of poultry to be vaccinated for the control of the virus transmission in poultry and environment. After control,R₀ will fall down to 0.14. The results show that, reduction of the viral load in environment and the infection ratios among poultry and from poultry to humans could effectively lower human infections.
- H7N9,
- dynamic model,
- stability,
- basic reproduction number

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References(15)

References

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