Survival Analysis Approach for Estimating Urban Traffic Congestion Duration

Based on the empirical traffic flow data on the second Ring Road in Beijing, the distribution characteristic of traffic congestion duration was analyzed. The hazardbased traffic congestion duration model was established through survival analysis method. The duration time of traffic congestion was estimated and the temporalspatial distribution was studied using nonparametric method. The results show that 70% of the congestion durations of road segments on the second Ring Road are not longer than four minutes. 89% of the congestion durations are not longer than 12 minutes. The hazard rate is less than 10% when the duration is longer than 12 minutes. The occurrence frequency of congestion on weekday is longer than that on weekend. Both the occurrence frequency and the duration of traffic congestion at morning peak are longer than those at evening peak. The occurrence frequency of congestion on the inner ring is longer than that on the outer ring while the congestion duration on the outer ring is longer than the duration on the inner ring. In the four directions of the second Ring Road, the occurrence frequency of xongestion in the west is lorgest. The congestion duration in the north is longest.